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Baseline Tuned — Schedule

Day by day: what this model predicted, and how it turned out. Past days show the leakage-free pre-game predictions recorded at evaluation time.

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14–9 on winners spread MAE 10.8 23 games

Matchup	Spread	Total	Home win	Result	Pick
Miami @ North Carolina	+3.4	157.5	65%	80–72	✗
American University @ Bucknell	+0.1	135.5	49%	51–73	✓
North Carolina A&T @ Monmouth	-1.8	139.4	42%	71–85	✗
Towson @ William & Mary	-6.2	140.1	26%	66–68	✗
Drexel @ Hofstra	+10.0	136.8	83%	52–66	✓
Stony Brook @ Delaware	+7.9	131.1	78%	60–71	✓
Northeastern @ Charleston	+16.5	146.5	90%	63–99	✓
Morgan State @ South Carolina State	-2.2	154.9	40%	62–74	✗
Maryland Eastern Shore @ Howard	+2.4	143.8	63%	69–78	✓
Delaware State @ Norfolk State	+11.6	143.3	87%	58–97	✓
Jackson State @ Bethune-Cookman	+0.4	144.7	50%	91–64	✗
Prairie View A&M @ Grambling	+6.0	130.9	75%	64–68	✓
Alcorn State @ Florida A&M	-6.1	132.6	25%	67–64	✓
Coppin State @ North Carolina Central	+12.3	153.1	87%	52–85	✓
Hartford @ South Alabama	+21.2	136.2	91%	53–77	✓
Alabama State @ Mississippi Valley State	-0.3	135.5	44%	70–76	✗
Texas @ Texas Tech	-2.9	146.3	35%	67–74	✗
West Virginia @ Baylor	+7.0	153.1	77%	67–79	✓
Alabama A&M @ Arkansas-Pine Bluff	+2.3	142.6	62%	75–72	✗
Texas Southern @ Southern	+7.7	144.0	79%	79–68	✗
Hampton @ Elon	+5.4	139.7	72%	68–70	✓
Georgetown @ Seton Hall	+12.3	135.6	87%	68–76	✓
Vanderbilt @ South Carolina	-4.7	141.0	33%	75–64	✓

Pre-game predictions recorded from rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Spread is the predicted home margin; Result is away–home. Not betting advice.