Betting Lines
| Spread | USA -19.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 129.5 Over |
| Money | USA -8000 HART +1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | USA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USA +24 | 130 | Won |
| Massey | USA -25.1 (-1.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.8 (-1.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USA -20.5 (+3.5) | 134.4 (-4.4) | 91% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USA -18.2 (+5.8) | 135.6 (-5.6) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USA -21.2 (+2.8) | 136.2 (-6.2) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USA -21.5 (+2.5) | 134.6 (-4.6) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | USA | HART |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 19-16 | 5-23 |
| Conference | 9-9 | 0-0 |
| Home | 10-4 | 5-10 |
| Away | 4-10 | 0-11 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 59.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.8 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#136) | -19.9 (#362) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.40 (#214) | -3.52 (#361) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.31 (#195) | -4.05 (#361) |
| RPI | 0.492 (#197) | 0.351 (#361) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | USA | HART |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.0% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 32.1% | 31.4% |
| REB / G | 32.1 | 29.6 |
| OREB / G | 7.1 | 8.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.03 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 47.4% |
| TOV% | 15.8% | 22.0% |
| ORB% | 21.0% | 24.7% |
| FT Rate | 14.6% | 17.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.6% | 55.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.5% | 18.0% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.9% |
Game Analysis
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