Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -5.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -250 MIA +188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +8 | 152 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -4.4 (-12.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 159.9 (-7.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.9 (-11.9) | 153.8 (-1.8) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -3.4 (-11.4) | 157.5 (-5.5) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.3 (-11.3) | 157.1 (-5.1) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.7 (-11.7) | 155.2 (-3.2) | 66% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | MIA 75 – 66 UNC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNC 92 – 73 MIA |
| Feb 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNC 75 – 72 MIA |
| Jan 19, 2022 | MIA 85 – 57 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 11-9 | 15-5 |
| Home | 12-3 | 16-1 |
| Away | 4-7 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 6-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.2 | 79.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.9 | 71.9 |
| Massey | 11.2 (#35) | 10.4 (#43) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#46) | 2.52 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.58 (#34) | 3.00 (#17) |
| RPI | 0.595 (#29) | 0.613 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.3% | 48.4% |
| 3PT% | 31.4% | 36.3% |
| REB / G | 39.6 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.15 | 1.35 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.9% | 54.8% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 30.1% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 28.4% | 23.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.2% | 49.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 76.5% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.5% | 18.2% |
Game Analysis
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