Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -17.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Over |
| Money | UNC -4000 MIA +1300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +19 | 165 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -17.5 (+1.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 168.9 (-3.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -17.1 (+1.9) | 160.3 (+4.7) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -14.3 (+4.7) | 159.8 (+5.2) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -16.5 (+2.5) | 163.4 (+1.6) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -17.5 (+1.5) | 163.6 (+1.4) | 89% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | MIA 75 – 66 UNC |
| Feb 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNC 75 – 72 MIA |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MIA 80 – 72 UNC |
| Jan 19, 2022 | MIA 85 – 57 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-14 | 7-24 |
| Conference | 13-7 | 3-17 |
| Home | 12-3 | 7-10 |
| Away | 6-6 | 0-10 |
| Neutral | 5-5 | 0-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | W1 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.7 | 74.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.7 | 80.6 |
| Massey | 13.1 (#43) | -1.2 (#178) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.10 (#42) | -1.15 (#274) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.66 (#45) | -1.08 (#250) |
| RPI | 0.608 (#24) | 0.444 (#285) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 46.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.0% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 31.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 1.17 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.8% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 15.0% | 16.1% |
| ORB% | 29.5% | 28.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.1% | 57.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.0% | 14.8% |
| DRB% | 72.7% | 70.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.3% | 21.2% |
Game Analysis
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