Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -14.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 154.5 Under |
| Money | UNC -1400 MIA +700 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UNC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -13.3 (-9.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 155.8 (-9.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 92% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -11.7 (-7.7) | 152.9 (-6.9) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -12.0 (-8.0) | 154.0 (-8.0) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -12.3 (-8.3) | 156.3 (-10.3) | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -13.1 (-9.1) | 155.3 (-9.3) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | MIA 75 – 66 UNC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNC 92 – 73 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNC 75 – 72 MIA |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MIA 80 – 72 UNC |
| Jan 19, 2022 | MIA 85 – 57 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UNC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-8 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 6-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 11-6 |
| Away | 8-2 | 2-9 |
| Neutral | 7-5 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L10 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.9 | 75.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 73.6 |
| Massey | 17.8 (#9) | 7.9 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.81 (#5) | 1.05 (#99) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.76 (#4) | 1.41 (#95) |
| RPI | 0.628 (#9) | 0.521 (#134) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UNC | MIA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 46.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 36.7% |
| REB / G | 41.1 | 36.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.2 | 9.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.39 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.2% | 53.7% |
| TOV% | 14.5% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 32.8% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 28.6% | 19.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.1% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.1% | 16.7% |
| DRB% | 75.8% | 72.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.0% | 15.7% |
Game Analysis
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