Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 160.5 Under |
| Money | MIA +145 UNC -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UNC +3 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | UNC -5.0 (+2.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 157.5 (-10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 36% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -3.2 (+0.2) | 154.2 (-7.2) | 38% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -3.0 (+0.0) | 152.5 (-5.5) | 41% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -3.1 (+0.1) | 150.5 (-3.5) | 37% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -3.0 (-0.0) | 151.9 (-4.9) | 39% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | MIA 75 – 66 UNC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNC 92 – 73 MIA |
| Feb 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MIA 80 – 72 UNC |
| Jan 19, 2022 | MIA 85 – 57 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 29-8 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 17-3 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-1 |
| Away | 2-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 2-2 | 7-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L10 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.8 | 81.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.6 | 70.5 |
| Massey | 9.4 (#62) | 17.8 (#10) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.55 (#65) | 2.76 (#8) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.89 (#64) | 3.87 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#85) | 0.624 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.4% | 45.0% |
| 3PT% | 37.1% | 35.2% |
| REB / G | 37.4 | 41.3 |
| OREB / G | 9.7 | 12.2 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.7% | 51.1% |
| TOV% | 17.5% | 14.1% |
| ORB% | 29.1% | 32.6% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 29.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.5% | 45.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 15.6% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 75.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 14.5% | 20.6% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.