Betting Lines
| Spread | MIA -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Under |
| Money | MIA -112 UNC -108 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +9 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | MIA -0.2 (+8.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.8 (-15.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -0.5 (+9.5) | 149.1 (-8.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MIA -1.8 (+7.2) | 149.1 (-8.1) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MIA -1.6 (+7.4) | 149.8 (-8.8) | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MIA -2.1 (+6.9) | 150.1 (-9.1) | 57% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNC 92 – 73 MIA |
| Feb 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNC 75 – 72 MIA |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MIA 80 – 72 UNC |
| Jan 19, 2022 | MIA 85 – 57 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-9 | 24-9 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 12-6 |
| Home | 15-3 | 18-0 |
| Away | 8-2 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 81.5 | 79.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 71.6 |
| Massey | 14.6 (#38) | 17.3 (#27) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.17 (#44) | 3.47 (#14) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.10 (#40) | 4.09 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.558 (#69) | 0.654 (#6) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 51.1% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 38.6 | 39.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.0 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.49 | 1.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 56.7% | 55.3% |
| TOV% | 16.4% | 13.6% |
| ORB% | 36.9% | 33.1% |
| FT Rate | 26.9% | 27.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 46.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.8% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 74.3% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.9% | 16.8% |
Game Analysis
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