Betting Lines
| Spread | UNC -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 154.0 Under |
| Money | MIA +120 UNC -140 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MIA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MIA +28 | 142 | Won |
| Massey | UNC -2.7 (+30.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.9 (-16.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 62% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UNC -0.9 (+28.9) | 156.6 (-14.6) | 50% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UNC -1.6 (+29.6) | 154.4 (-12.4) | 45% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UNC -0.0 (+28.0) | 155.8 (-13.8) | 48% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UNC -0.2 (+28.2) | 156.4 (-14.4) | 50% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 11, 2026 | MIA 75 – 66 UNC |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNC 92 – 73 MIA |
| Feb 27, 2024 | UNC 75 – 71 MIA |
| Feb 10, 2024 | UNC 75 – 72 MIA |
| Feb 14, 2023 | MIA 80 – 72 UNC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 29-10 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 15-5 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-2 |
| Away | 10-2 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 6-4 | 6-5 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.9 | 77.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.4 | 71.3 |
| Massey | 5.4 (#99) | 11.8 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.03 (#48) | 1.89 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.25 (#57) | 2.44 (#51) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#44) | 0.603 (#37) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MIA | UNC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.2% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 39.8% |
| REB / G | 30.9 | 39.9 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.37 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.5% | 55.0% |
| TOV% | 13.9% | 17.4% |
| ORB% | 23.7% | 29.3% |
| FT Rate | 25.3% | 23.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 13.8% |
| DRB% | 68.8% | 80.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.5% | 13.1% |
Game Analysis
Loading game analysis…
Failed to load game analysis.