Betting Lines
| Spread | ALST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | MVSU -111 ALST -115 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MVSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MVSU +6 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | ALST -0.1 (+6.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.4 (+13.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 39% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 42% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ALST -1.2 (+7.2) | 138.7 (+7.3) | 43% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ALST -0.6 (+6.6) | 137.3 (+8.7) | 43% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ALST -0.3 (+6.3) | 135.5 (+10.5) | 44% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ALST -0.3 (+6.3) | 136.7 (+9.3) | 43% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | ALST 92 – 55 MVSU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | ALST 89 – 69 MVSU |
| Feb 18, 2025 | ALST 79 – 56 MVSU |
| Jan 4, 2025 | ALST 84 – 55 MVSU |
| Feb 20, 2024 | ALST 61 – 46 MVSU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-27 | 8-23 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 6-12 |
| Home | 4-6 | 5-5 |
| Away | 1-19 | 2-18 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 61.0 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.8 | 72.5 |
| Massey | -15.4 (#359) | -11.7 (#343) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.78 (#356) | -1.68 (#318) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -3.22 (#357) | -2.15 (#330) |
| RPI | 0.381 (#355) | 0.417 (#324) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MVSU | ALST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.5% | 37.0% |
| 3PT% | 33.4% | 31.1% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.0 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.58 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 43.9% | 41.9% |
| TOV% | 23.5% | 18.3% |
| ORB% | 28.8% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 26.0% | 22.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.0% | 49.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 17.8% |
| DRB% | 66.7% | 64.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 27.1% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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