Betting Lines
| Spread | SOU -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | SOU -300 TXSO +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TXSO +11 | 147 | Lost |
| Massey | SOU -9.6 (-20.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.1 (+0.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 86% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SOU -7.7 (-18.7) | 145.6 (+1.4) | 76% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SOU -6.6 (-17.6) | 142.5 (+4.5) | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SOU -7.7 (-18.7) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 79% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | SOU -7.2 (-18.2) | 143.6 (+3.4) | 78% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 17, 2026 | TXSO 74 – 73 SOU |
| Jan 3, 2026 | SOU 84 – 73 TXSO |
| Feb 18, 2025 | SOU 66 – 57 TXSO |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SOU 67 – 58 TXSO |
| Feb 20, 2024 | TXSO 68 – 56 SOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 14-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-2 | 7-6 |
| Away | 5-12 | 3-13 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.7 | 67.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 73.2 |
| Massey | -3.3 (#227) | -9.3 (#325) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.72 (#248) | -1.87 (#333) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.07 (#257) | -2.44 (#336) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#225) | 0.417 (#323) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SOU | TXSO |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.2% | 41.1% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 27.5% |
| REB / G | 31.0 | 36.4 |
| OREB / G | 7.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.3% | 44.9% |
| TOV% | 20.7% | 20.5% |
| ORB% | 23.2% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.8% | 21.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 50.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.1% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 71.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 31.1% | 26.4% |
Game Analysis
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