Betting Lines
| Spread | TEX -3.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 144.5 Under |
| Money | TTU +138 TEX -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TTU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | TTU +7 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | TEX -4.2 (+11.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.5 (-4.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 20% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 18% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | TEX -1.9 (+8.9) | 143.5 (-2.5) | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | TEX -2.9 (+9.9) | 146.3 (-5.3) | 35% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | TEX -3.3 (+10.3) | 146.6 (-5.6) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | TEX -2.8 (+9.8) | 147.6 (-6.6) | 44% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2024 | TEX 81 – 69 TTU |
| Jan 7, 2024 | TTU 78 – 67 TEX |
| Jan 15, 2023 | TEX 72 – 70 TTU |
| Feb 19, 2022 | TTU 61 – 55 TEX |
| Feb 2, 2022 | TTU 77 – 64 TEX |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TTU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 29-9 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-6 | 17-1 |
| Away | 3-7 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.3 | 78.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 9.7 (#51) | 17.5 (#6) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.08 (#85) | 3.14 (#5) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.45 (#77) | 3.72 (#7) |
| RPI | 0.508 (#159) | 0.628 (#11) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TTU | TEX |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 47.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 33.8% |
| REB / G | 34.6 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 10.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 1.33 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.5% | 53.8% |
| TOV% | 20.1% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 31.4% | 29.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.3% | 24.3% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.8% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.6% | 22.5% |
| DRB% | 69.5% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.8% | 25.2% |
Game Analysis
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