Trouble's gonna come to you "Your Time is Gonna Come" - Led Zeppelin
Big 12 Conference · Moody Center · January 7, 2024
Betting Lines
Spread TEX -6.0 Away covered
O/U 141.0 Over
Money TEX -320 / TTU +250
Model Predictions
Spread Total TEX win
Actual TTU +11 145 Lost
Massey TEX -3.9 (-14.9)
Massey Totals 140.1 (+4.9)
Bradley-Terry 77%
Weighted B-T 84%
Efficiency Plus ML TEX -4.1 (-15.1) 138.6 (+6.4) 69%
Baseline Tuned ML TEX -4.1 (-15.1) 139.3 (+5.7) 65%
Baseline ML TEX -4.6 (-15.6) 139.7 (+5.3) 61%
Baseline Plus ML TEX -4.5 (-15.5) 140.0 (+5.0) 60%

Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →

Last 5 Meetings

Feb 28, 2024 TEX 8169 TTU
Feb 14, 2023 TTU 7467 TEX
Jan 15, 2023 TEX 7270 TTU
Feb 19, 2022 TTU 6155 TEX
Feb 2, 2022 TTU 7764 TEX

Team Comparison

Record & Ratings TEX TTU
Overall 21-13 23-11
Conference 9-9 11-7
Home 14-4 15-2
Away 4-6 4-6
Neutral 3-3 4-3
Last 5 5-0 5-0
Streak L1 L2
Avg Pts For 75.4 75.3
Avg Pts Against 68.9 69.6
Massey 10.3 (#48) 10.6 (#47)
Bradley-Terry 1.94 (#44) 1.55 (#62)
W. Bradley-Terry 2.63 (#43) 1.86 (#70)
RPI 0.567 (#75) 0.565 (#78)
Shooting & Four Factors TEX TTU
FG% 48.6% 45.7%
3PT% 36.9% 35.7%
REB / G 38.2 37.7
OREB / G 11.0 11.2
AST / TO 1.40 1.39
Four Factors — Offense
eFG% 54.9% 53.3%
TOV% 17.3% 16.6%
ORB% 32.7% 34.0%
FT Rate 23.3% 26.8%
Four Factors — Defense
Opp eFG% 44.4% 47.0%
Opp TOV% 19.5% 18.6%
DRB% 70.5% 72.0%
Opp FT Rate 20.9% 16.0%

Game Analysis

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