Betting Lines
| Spread | HOW -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Over |
| Money | HOW -275 UMES +275 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HOW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HOW +9 | 147 | Won |
| Massey | HOW -3.4 (+5.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.0 (+7.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | HOW -2.0 (+7.0) | 144.0 (+3.0) | 65% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | HOW -3.8 (+5.2) | 143.2 (+3.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | HOW -2.4 (+6.6) | 143.8 (+3.2) | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | HOW -2.3 (+6.7) | 145.3 (+1.7) | 64% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | HOW 79 – 53 UMES |
| Jan 10, 2026 | UMES 69 – 57 HOW |
| Feb 17, 2025 | HOW 86 – 62 UMES |
| Feb 11, 2025 | HOW 77 – 57 UMES |
| Mar 2, 2024 | HOW 70 – 66 UMES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-13 | 18-13 |
| Conference | 11-3 | 9-5 |
| Home | 12-2 | 10-3 |
| Away | 6-8 | 7-9 |
| Neutral | 4-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.4 | 66.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.3 | 68.9 |
| Massey | -4.8 (#253) | -4.6 (#248) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.19 (#190) | 0.25 (#149) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.61 (#231) | 0.05 (#169) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#211) | 0.518 (#144) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HOW | UMES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.4% | 41.6% |
| 3PT% | 36.2% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 30.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.3 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.91 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.9% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 21.2% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 19.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.3% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 23.5% |
| DRB% | 69.3% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.5% | 26.5% |
Game Analysis
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