Betting Lines
| Spread | AMER -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Under |
| Money | BUCK +100 AMER -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BUCK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BUCK +22 | 124 | Won |
| Massey | AMER -0.1 (+22.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 131.6 (-7.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 37% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BUCK -0.8 (+21.2) | 131.3 (-7.3) | 56% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BUCK -0.4 (+21.6) | 127.4 (-3.4) | 55% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BUCK -0.1 (+21.9) | 135.5 (-11.5) | 49% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BUCK -0.0 (+22.0) | 136.4 (-12.4) | 53% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | AMER 75 – 57 BUCK |
| Feb 5, 2026 | BUCK 60 – 59 AMER |
| Feb 6, 2025 | BUCK 71 – 49 AMER |
| Jan 11, 2025 | AMER 68 – 58 BUCK |
| Mar 8, 2024 | BUCK 80 – 57 AMER |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 7-11 |
| Home | 7-7 | 8-6 |
| Away | 3-13 | 9-9 |
| Neutral | 2-0 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.1 | 65.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.0 | 65.9 |
| Massey | -7.3 (#295) | -3.6 (#231) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.74 (#324) | -0.54 (#232) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#326) | -0.92 (#248) |
| RPI | 0.412 (#330) | 0.463 (#253) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BUCK | AMER |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.8% | 49.7% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 36.0% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 29.7 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 7.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.95 | 0.96 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.0% | 56.6% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 25.8% | 27.1% |
| FT Rate | 20.2% | 20.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.7% | 51.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 73.6% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 17.2% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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