Betting Lines
| Spread | SIU -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Under |
| Money | VAL +145 SIU -188 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | VAL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SIU +4 | 128 | Lost |
| Massey | SIU -5.2 (+1.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.3 (-1.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SIU -4.5 (+0.5) | 134.0 (-6.0) | 30% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SIU -4.8 (+0.8) | 131.6 (-3.6) | 33% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SIU -4.3 (+0.3) | 132.8 (-4.8) | 29% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SIU -4.4 (+0.4) | 133.7 (-5.7) | 33% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 22, 2026 | VAL 69 – 63 SIU |
| Jan 1, 2026 | SIU 75 – 70 VAL |
| Feb 23, 2025 | VAL 83 – 79 SIU |
| Jan 29, 2025 | SIU 79 – 75 VAL |
| Jan 25, 2024 | SIU 75 – 69 VAL |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 5-15 | 14-6 |
| Home | 8-7 | 13-2 |
| Away | 2-12 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L5 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.1 | 65.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.0 | 61.7 |
| Massey | -6.7 (#289) | 2.1 (#130) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.92 (#263) | 0.95 (#95) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#267) | 0.71 (#119) |
| RPI | 0.446 (#280) | 0.558 (#74) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | VAL | SIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.8% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 29.8% | 31.5% |
| REB / G | 33.7 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 6.8 |
| AST / TO | 1.05 | 1.03 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.3% | 52.4% |
| TOV% | 18.0% | 20.0% |
| ORB% | 22.8% | 22.8% |
| FT Rate | 20.7% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 48.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 75.4% | 72.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.0% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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