Betting Lines
| Spread | BALL -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 145.5 Over |
| Money | BALL -700 NIU +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | BALL win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | BALL +10 | 164 | Won |
| Massey | BALL -9.4 (+0.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 144.5 (+19.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BALL -9.4 (+0.6) | 146.8 (+17.2) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BALL -7.2 (+2.8) | 147.4 (+16.6) | 81% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BALL -9.3 (+0.7) | 147.6 (+16.4) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | BALL -8.1 (+1.9) | 148.2 (+15.8) | 83% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | BALL 79 – 43 NIU |
| Jan 24, 2026 | BALL 58 – 53 NIU |
| Feb 15, 2025 | BALL 89 – 83 NIU |
| Jan 25, 2025 | NIU 76 – 66 BALL |
| Feb 21, 2024 | BALL 70 – 63 NIU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-12 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 9-9 |
| Home | 12-2 | 5-7 |
| Away | 6-7 | 7-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 75.0 | 70.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.7 | 74.8 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#137) | -4.2 (#239) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.65 (#115) | -0.62 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.62 (#125) | -0.77 (#239) |
| RPI | 0.525 (#130) | 0.477 (#223) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | BALL | NIU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 38.0% | 34.9% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 10.6 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 0.81 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.3% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 20.4% |
| ORB% | 31.0% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 29.7% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.0% | 50.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.5% | 18.9% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 66.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.3% | 25.1% |
Game Analysis
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