Betting Lines
| Spread | LONG -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | UPST +180 LONG -175 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UPST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UPST +5 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | LONG -3.4 (+8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.1 (+6.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 55% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LONG -3.3 (+8.3) | 135.4 (+3.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LONG -4.4 (+9.4) | 130.9 (+8.1) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LONG -2.2 (+7.2) | 134.8 (+4.2) | 41% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LONG -2.3 (+7.3) | 134.9 (+4.1) | 39% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | LONG 82 – 75 UPST |
| Jan 30, 2026 | UPST 65 – 60 LONG |
| Mar 1, 2025 | LONG 83 – 66 UPST |
| Jan 25, 2025 | LONG 80 – 54 UPST |
| Feb 8, 2024 | UPST 69 – 64 LONG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 12-6 |
| Home | 11-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 4-12 | 8-8 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 0-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.2 | 71.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.8 | 66.4 |
| Massey | -5.8 (#275) | 1.2 (#146) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.67 (#243) | -0.23 (#199) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.91 (#246) | -0.31 (#196) |
| RPI | 0.462 (#254) | 0.501 (#176) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UPST | LONG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.1% | 44.0% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 34.4% |
| REB / G | 30.5 | 34.8 |
| OREB / G | 8.1 | 11.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.82 | 1.04 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 20.9% | 18.0% |
| ORB% | 25.5% | 32.4% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 24.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.5% | 21.8% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 32.3% | 23.7% |
Game Analysis
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