Betting Lines
| Spread | USF -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 148.5 Over |
| Money | TLSA +170 USF -163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | TLSA win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | USF +27 | 165 | Lost |
| Massey | USF -4.5 (-22.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 147.9 (+17.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 44% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 35% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | USF -4.3 (-22.7) | 147.9 (+17.1) | 29% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | USF -3.9 (-23.1) | 146.3 (+18.7) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | USF -3.8 (-23.2) | 148.1 (+16.9) | 34% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | USF -4.2 (-22.8) | 148.3 (+16.7) | 26% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 8, 2026 | USF 80 – 74 TLSA |
| Jan 10, 2026 | USF 93 – 78 TLSA |
| Jan 18, 2025 | USF 63 – 56 TLSA |
| Mar 9, 2024 | TLSA 76 – 70 USF |
| Feb 15, 2024 | USF 69 – 50 TLSA |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | TLSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 5-25 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 1-17 | 7-11 |
| Home | 4-10 | 9-9 |
| Away | 0-12 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L12 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.3 | 72.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.4 | 72.0 |
| Massey | -7.4 (#296) | 0.7 (#152) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.47 (#305) | -0.59 (#234) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.60 (#289) | -0.22 (#188) |
| RPI | 0.426 (#314) | 0.469 (#235) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | TLSA | USF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.0% | 44.6% |
| 3PT% | 30.9% | 33.7% |
| REB / G | 32.5 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 12.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.5% | 50.6% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 33.2% |
| FT Rate | 16.3% | 20.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 52.9% | 49.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 66.3% | 71.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.1% |
Game Analysis
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