Betting Lines
| Spread | UCD -11.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Under |
| Money | UCD -700 CSUN +550 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UCD +11 | 135 | Won |
| Massey | UCD -12.9 (-1.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 138.7 (-3.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 97% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UCD -9.7 (+1.3) | 141.2 (-6.2) | 85% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UCD -11.0 (+0.0) | 137.6 (-2.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UCD -10.1 (+0.9) | 139.6 (-4.6) | 87% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UCD -9.9 (+1.1) | 139.7 (-4.7) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 30, 2026 | CSUN 94 – 78 UCD |
| Jan 1, 2026 | UCD 89 – 80 CSUN |
| Feb 22, 2025 | CSUN 65 – 62 UCD |
| Jan 4, 2025 | CSUN 73 – 61 UCD |
| Feb 23, 2024 | UCD 66 – 65 CSUN |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 18-14 | 7-25 |
| Conference | 11-8 | 4-16 |
| Home | 10-4 | 7-8 |
| Away | 5-9 | 0-14 |
| Neutral | 3-1 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.2 | 61.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.7 | 69.9 |
| Massey | 1.2 (#142) | -8.1 (#308) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.06 (#184) | -2.17 (#348) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.17 (#155) | -2.47 (#340) |
| RPI | 0.505 (#167) | 0.376 (#356) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCD | CSUN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.5% | 38.4% |
| 3PT% | 34.5% | 30.2% |
| REB / G | 34.8 | 32.6 |
| OREB / G | 11.1 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.83 | 0.72 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.5% | 43.4% |
| TOV% | 21.4% | 18.9% |
| ORB% | 32.9% | 27.3% |
| FT Rate | 28.3% | 25.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.2% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.2% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 69.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.4% | 28.6% |
Game Analysis
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