Betting Lines
| Spread | CIN -9.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 141.5 Over |
| Money | ECU +350 CIN -500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ECU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ECU +4 | 146 | Won |
| Massey | CIN -8.2 (+12.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.6 (+5.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CIN -7.0 (+11.0) | 145.7 (+0.3) | 28% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CIN -6.5 (+10.5) | 145.0 (+1.0) | 33% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CIN -6.5 (+10.5) | 144.9 (+1.1) | 31% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | CIN -6.4 (+10.4) | 145.5 (+0.5) | 30% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2023 | CIN 83 – 55 ECU |
| Mar 10, 2022 | CIN 74 – 63 ECU |
| Jan 30, 2022 | CIN 60 – 59 ECU |
| Jan 13, 2022 | CIN 79 – 71 ECU |
| Mar 7, 2021 | CIN 82 – 69 ECU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ECU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-17 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 11-7 |
| Home | 10-6 | 16-3 |
| Away | 2-9 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 4-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.8 | 76.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 69.7 |
| Massey | -2.6 (#217) | 9.2 (#52) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.44 (#222) | 0.97 (#94) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.39 (#204) | 1.23 (#92) |
| RPI | 0.456 (#267) | 0.541 (#107) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ECU | CIN |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.8% | 44.1% |
| 3PT% | 31.7% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 37.0 | 37.4 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 11.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.02 | 1.50 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.6% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 14.9% |
| ORB% | 33.8% | 30.6% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 16.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.4% | 47.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.7% | 17.7% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.7% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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