Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 140.5 Over |
| Money | ILST -110 MUR +110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MUR +1 | 151 | Lost |
| Massey | ILST -2.0 (-3.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 140.5 (+10.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 42% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -0.1 (-0.9) | 141.6 (+9.4) | 49% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -1.1 (-2.1) | 144.6 (+6.4) | 57% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -0.8 (-1.8) | 146.0 (+5.0) | 56% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -0.4 (-1.4) | 144.8 (+6.2) | 54% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ILST 78 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | ILST 70 – 65 MUR |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILST 61 – 59 MUR |
| Dec 3, 2023 | ILST 76 – 72 MUR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-21 | 17-15 |
| Conference | 6-14 | 11-9 |
| Home | 8-7 | 11-2 |
| Away | 3-9 | 3-11 |
| Neutral | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.5 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.5 | 72.6 |
| Massey | -5.3 (#261) | -3.6 (#230) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.90 (#259) | 0.06 (#167) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.23 (#267) | -0.09 (#178) |
| RPI | 0.442 (#290) | 0.491 (#197) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 43.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.9% | 30.6% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 35.0 |
| OREB / G | 9.0 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.73 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 48.4% |
| TOV% | 21.9% | 16.5% |
| ORB% | 28.9% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.7% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.7% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.1% | 15.0% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 71.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.0% | 18.4% |
Game Analysis
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