Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -7.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 133.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -300 ILST +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +2 | 120 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -8.1 (-10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 129.7 (-9.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 58% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -4.8 (-6.8) | 131.4 (-11.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -5.0 (-7.0) | 129.5 (-9.5) | 70% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -5.2 (-7.2) | 129.2 (-9.2) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -4.7 (-6.7) | 129.3 (-9.3) | 68% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ILST 78 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | ILST 70 – 65 MUR |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MUR |
| Dec 3, 2023 | ILST 76 – 72 MUR |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MUR 76 – 75 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-20 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 8-8 | 10-6 |
| Away | 4-9 | 4-8 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.1 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 68.0 |
| Massey | 1.4 (#143) | -3.1 (#227) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.59 (#236) | -0.27 (#200) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.18 (#185) | -0.27 (#194) |
| RPI | 0.475 (#218) | 0.476 (#215) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.2% | 40.6% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 26.0% |
| REB / G | 32.8 | 35.4 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 10.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.27 | 0.99 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.1% | 45.6% |
| TOV% | 14.4% | 17.2% |
| ORB% | 25.7% | 29.1% |
| FT Rate | 21.7% | 27.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.6% | 50.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.5% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 74.2% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.7% | 22.4% |
Game Analysis
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