Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 140.0 Over |
| Money | ILST -125 MUR +105 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +4 | 148 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -8.2 (-4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 137.1 (+10.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 89% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 95% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -4.8 (-0.8) | 137.0 (+11.0) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -3.1 (+0.9) | 137.0 (+11.0) | 68% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -4.7 (-0.7) | 136.4 (+11.6) | 73% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -5.0 (-1.0) | 137.1 (+10.9) | 71% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ILST 78 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 29, 2026 | ILST 70 – 65 MUR |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILST 61 – 59 MUR |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MUR 76 – 75 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 15-17 | 12-20 |
| Conference | 9-11 | 9-11 |
| Home | 10-6 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-8 | 4-9 |
| Neutral | 1-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.2 | 69.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 68.0 | 70.3 |
| Massey | -0.6 (#191) | -2.9 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#142) | -0.36 (#220) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#115) | -0.42 (#213) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#202) | 0.455 (#239) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 39.9% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 26.4% | 29.7% |
| REB / G | 35.7 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.63 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.0% | 50.5% |
| TOV% | 19.9% | 13.9% |
| ORB% | 28.4% | 27.8% |
| FT Rate | 29.3% | 26.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.9% | 52.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.3% | 14.0% |
| DRB% | 70.9% | 74.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 17.5% |
Game Analysis
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