Betting Lines
| Spread | MUR -3.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | MUR -162 ILST +136 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MUR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +5 | 135 | Lost |
| Massey | MUR -2.3 (-7.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 161.4 (-26.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 77% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 78% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MUR -3.0 (-8.0) | 154.9 (-19.9) | 61% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MUR -2.3 (-7.3) | 152.2 (-17.2) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MUR -2.8 (-7.8) | 150.5 (-15.5) | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MUR -2.9 (-7.9) | 153.2 (-18.2) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2026 | ILST 78 – 61 MUR |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILST 61 – 59 MUR |
| Dec 3, 2023 | ILST 76 – 72 MUR |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MUR 76 – 75 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MUR | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 20-13 | 23-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 12-3 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-7 | 7-7 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L3 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 83.1 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.2 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 7.4 (#86) | 8.3 (#73) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.23 (#77) | 0.57 (#118) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.38 (#86) | 0.75 (#115) |
| RPI | 0.559 (#73) | 0.537 (#104) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MUR | ILST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 36.0% | 34.5% |
| REB / G | 38.1 | 36.8 |
| OREB / G | 12.3 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.26 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 55.6% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 16.3% | 16.3% |
| ORB% | 34.6% | 30.7% |
| FT Rate | 30.0% | 24.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 48.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.1% | 17.3% |
| DRB% | 68.2% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 24.8% |
Game Analysis
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