Betting Lines
| Spread | ILST -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 158.5 Under |
| Money | ILST -142 MUR +120 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | ILST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | ILST +17 | 139 | Won |
| Massey | ILST -4.7 (+12.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (-19.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 52% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | ILST -4.6 (+12.4) | 152.1 (-13.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | ILST -4.1 (+12.9) | 151.3 (-12.3) | 71% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | ILST -4.4 (+12.6) | 149.5 (-10.5) | 69% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | ILST -4.5 (+12.5) | 151.0 (-12.0) | 69% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 29, 2026 | ILST 70 – 65 MUR |
| Jan 3, 2025 | ILST 74 – 68 MUR |
| Jan 31, 2024 | ILST 61 – 59 MUR |
| Dec 3, 2023 | ILST 76 – 72 MUR |
| Feb 16, 2023 | MUR 76 – 75 ILST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | ILST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-13 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 12-8 | 12-8 |
| Home | 14-2 | 12-3 |
| Away | 7-7 | 5-7 |
| Neutral | 2-4 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L3 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 83.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 80.2 |
| Massey | 6.7 (#90) | 4.9 (#104) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.33 (#134) | 0.78 (#96) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.47 (#129) | 0.80 (#104) |
| RPI | 0.534 (#101) | 0.539 (#88) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | ILST | MUR |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.3% | 46.8% |
| 3PT% | 34.6% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 36.1 | 37.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.22 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.6% | 54.6% |
| TOV% | 16.2% | 16.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 33.7% |
| FT Rate | 22.5% | 29.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.9% | 51.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 15.7% |
| DRB% | 75.2% | 68.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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