Betting Lines
| Spread | LAF -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 123.5 Over |
| Money | L-MD +110 LAF -110 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | L-MD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | L-MD +3 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | LAF -2.0 (+5.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 120.2 (+22.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 56% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | LAF -2.5 (+5.5) | 129.4 (+13.6) | 39% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | LAF -3.0 (+6.0) | 128.3 (+14.7) | 52% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | LAF -1.8 (+4.8) | 130.8 (+12.2) | 40% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | LAF -1.9 (+4.9) | 130.1 (+12.9) | 41% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 12, 2026 | L-MD 68 – 54 LAF |
| Jan 3, 2026 | LAF 79 – 64 L-MD |
| Feb 6, 2025 | L-MD 71 – 58 LAF |
| Jan 23, 2025 | LAF 80 – 59 L-MD |
| Feb 15, 2024 | L-MD 79 – 64 LAF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | L-MD | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 13-20 | 11-23 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 7-11 |
| Home | 9-6 | 5-7 |
| Away | 3-13 | 5-16 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-0 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.9 | 62.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.8 | 65.6 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#333) | -4.5 (#247) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.71 (#323) | -1.30 (#292) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.07 (#327) | -1.48 (#282) |
| RPI | 0.411 (#331) | 0.460 (#259) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | L-MD | LAF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 40.7% |
| 3PT% | 35.3% | 33.0% |
| REB / G | 29.6 | 31.3 |
| OREB / G | 8.9 | 7.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.89 | 1.31 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.9% | 48.9% |
| TOV% | 21.5% | 18.1% |
| ORB% | 26.9% | 22.5% |
| FT Rate | 17.6% | 14.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.6% | 50.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 19.5% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 73.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.3% | 20.7% |
Game Analysis
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