Betting Lines
| Spread | UMBC -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Over |
| Money | UALB +260 UMBC -250 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UALB win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UALB +7 | 155 | Won |
| Massey | UMBC -5.7 (+12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 148.7 (+6.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 17% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 15% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UMBC -6.2 (+13.2) | 145.7 (+9.3) | 30% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UMBC -6.4 (+13.4) | 141.5 (+13.5) | 30% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UMBC -6.4 (+13.4) | 145.3 (+9.7) | 24% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | UMBC -6.1 (+13.1) | 145.6 (+9.4) | 29% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 21, 2026 | UMBC 66 – 62 UALB |
| Feb 1, 2026 | UMBC 68 – 65 UALB |
| Feb 27, 2025 | UALB 78 – 74 UMBC |
| Jan 23, 2025 | UMBC 92 – 87 UALB |
| Feb 17, 2024 | UMBC 80 – 75 UALB |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 18-14 |
| Conference | 3-13 | 8-8 |
| Home | 5-6 | 13-4 |
| Away | 2-16 | 5-10 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 0-0 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 66.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 76.2 | 73.0 |
| Massey | -12.2 (#347) | -2.9 (#220) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.43 (#353) | -0.19 (#190) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.88 (#353) | -0.44 (#207) |
| RPI | 0.401 (#343) | 0.485 (#210) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UALB | UMBC |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.0% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 31.6% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.85 | 1.44 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 46.4% | 52.5% |
| TOV% | 19.2% | 15.1% |
| ORB% | 28.1% | 26.9% |
| FT Rate | 22.3% | 19.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 55.8% | 53.6% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 72.1% | 73.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.7% | 17.6% |
Game Analysis
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