Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -8.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +280 SDSU -400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +2 | 88 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -8.9 (+6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 128.4 (-40.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -7.1 (+5.1) | 129.6 (-41.6) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -8.2 (+6.2) | 132.8 (-44.8) | 20% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -7.6 (+5.6) | 132.9 (-44.9) | 21% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -8.1 (+6.1) | 132.3 (-44.3) | 22% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 52 FRES |
| Feb 19, 2025 | SDSU 83 – 60 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2024 | SDSU 84 – 62 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SDSU 73 – 41 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 47 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 11-20 | 32-7 |
| Conference | 6-12 | 15-3 |
| Home | 7-7 | 15-1 |
| Away | 4-9 | 8-2 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 9-4 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.5 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.0 | 63.6 |
| Massey | 0.4 (#159) | 12.9 (#24) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.04 (#180) | 2.46 (#15) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.12 (#162) | 2.87 (#22) |
| RPI | 0.494 (#190) | 0.632 (#10) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.5% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 30.7% | 34.7% |
| REB / G | 30.2 | 35.5 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.00 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.6% | 51.6% |
| TOV% | 18.4% | 17.9% |
| ORB% | 24.4% | 31.3% |
| FT Rate | 19.4% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 50.3% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.7% | 19.8% |
| DRB% | 70.1% | 75.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.4% | 23.4% |
Game Analysis
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