Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -13.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | FRES +750 SDSU -1400 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +22 | 146 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -9.3 (-12.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 145.8 (+0.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 10% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -8.6 (-13.4) | 146.5 (-0.5) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -8.0 (-14.0) | 141.3 (+4.7) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -8.5 (-13.5) | 141.8 (+4.2) | 23% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -8.5 (-13.5) | 139.8 (+6.2) | 27% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 52 FRES |
| Feb 19, 2025 | SDSU 83 – 60 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SDSU 73 – 41 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 47 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2023 | SDSU 45 – 43 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-26 | 21-10 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 14-6 |
| Home | 5-9 | 12-3 |
| Away | 1-14 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.7 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 65.2 |
| Massey | -3.9 (#235) | 10.5 (#51) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.25 (#285) | 1.86 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.92 (#285) | 2.82 (#61) |
| RPI | 0.419 (#301) | 0.671 (#17) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 40.7% | 44.3% |
| 3PT% | 25.8% | 36.1% |
| REB / G | 39.9 | 34.6 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 8.4 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.23 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 45.2% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 15.9% |
| ORB% | 29.6% | 25.3% |
| FT Rate | 24.7% | 17.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.7% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.0% | 16.0% |
| DRB% | 67.7% | 65.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.9% | 23.8% |
Game Analysis
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