Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -16.0 Home covered |
| O/U | 137.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -1600 FRES +900 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +27 | 121 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -21.0 (+6.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 143.2 (-22.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -15.7 (+11.3) | 141.4 (-20.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -17.9 (+9.1) | 142.4 (-21.4) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -15.0 (+12.0) | 140.3 (-19.3) | 89% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -15.7 (+11.3) | 138.8 (-17.8) | 88% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 52 FRES |
| Feb 19, 2025 | SDSU 83 – 60 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2024 | SDSU 84 – 62 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SDSU 73 – 41 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2023 | SDSU 45 – 43 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-11 | 12-21 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 4-14 |
| Home | 14-1 | 7-9 |
| Away | 6-8 | 3-9 |
| Neutral | 6-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 73.7 | 67.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.4 | 74.2 |
| Massey | 13.5 (#24) | -3.0 (#229) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.16 (#13) | -0.24 (#197) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 4.17 (#12) | -0.29 (#200) |
| RPI | 0.674 (#3) | 0.480 (#204) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.1% | 48.2% |
| 3PT% | 33.7% | 33.2% |
| REB / G | 36.4 | 34.5 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 8.7 |
| AST / TO | 1.34 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 54.0% |
| TOV% | 14.7% | 21.5% |
| ORB% | 29.0% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 50.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.7% | 15.9% |
| DRB% | 71.2% | 71.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.9% | 17.1% |
Game Analysis
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