Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -18.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 143.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -5000 FRES +1500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +23 | 143 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -20.5 (+2.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.3 (+0.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -17.3 (+5.7) | 141.1 (+1.9) | 89% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -18.3 (+4.7) | 141.6 (+1.4) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -16.1 (+6.9) | 137.3 (+5.7) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -17.2 (+5.8) | 137.6 (+5.4) | 90% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 52 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2024 | SDSU 84 – 62 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SDSU 73 – 41 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 47 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2023 | SDSU 45 – 43 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-10 | 6-26 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 2-18 |
| Home | 12-3 | 5-9 |
| Away | 6-4 | 1-14 |
| Neutral | 3-3 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 69.8 | 70.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 65.2 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 11.3 (#52) | -6.1 (#263) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.20 (#43) | -1.79 (#323) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.82 (#45) | -2.01 (#315) |
| RPI | 0.597 (#36) | 0.403 (#335) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.3% | 40.5% |
| 3PT% | 32.4% | 31.8% |
| REB / G | 36.6 | 34.7 |
| OREB / G | 10.9 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.04 | 0.87 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.4% | 46.2% |
| TOV% | 17.3% | 17.7% |
| ORB% | 31.6% | 26.0% |
| FT Rate | 21.1% | 25.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 44.1% | 54.4% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.9% | 18.6% |
| DRB% | 68.6% | 66.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.0% | 16.6% |
Game Analysis
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