Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -14.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 146.5 Under |
| Money | SDSU -1450 FRES +850 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SDSU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +19 | 123 | Won |
| Massey | SDSU -11.2 (+7.8) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.1 (-27.1) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 94% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 98% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -12.4 (+6.6) | 145.4 (-22.4) | 86% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -10.4 (+8.6) | 145.0 (-22.0) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -10.4 (+8.6) | 146.3 (-23.3) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -10.6 (+8.4) | 146.1 (-23.1) | 84% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 19, 2025 | SDSU 83 – 60 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2024 | SDSU 84 – 62 FRES |
| Feb 25, 2024 | SDSU 73 – 41 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 47 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2023 | SDSU 45 – 43 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-11 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 14-6 | 7-13 |
| Home | 14-2 | 10-7 |
| Away | 5-5 | 2-10 |
| Neutral | 3-4 | 1-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 1-4 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.8 | 72.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 71.3 | 73.5 |
| Massey | 8.8 (#72) | 1.1 (#149) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.81 (#52) | -0.37 (#206) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.70 (#47) | -0.34 (#191) |
| RPI | 0.581 (#53) | 0.477 (#217) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SDSU | FRES |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.5% | 44.8% |
| 3PT% | 39.1% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 35.1 | 34.9 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 10.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.20 | 0.97 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.0% | 51.4% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 20.2% |
| ORB% | 32.3% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 27.7% | 23.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 49.0% | 51.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 20.6% | 20.5% |
| DRB% | 66.2% | 71.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 28.5% | 22.1% |
Game Analysis
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