Betting Lines
| Spread | SDSU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 138.5 Under |
| Money | FRES +650 SDSU -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FRES win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SDSU +32 | 114 | Lost |
| Massey | SDSU -13.0 (-19.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 139.4 (-25.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 11% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 7% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SDSU -11.7 (-20.3) | 135.5 (-21.5) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SDSU -11.4 (-20.6) | 136.8 (-22.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SDSU -11.2 (-20.8) | 137.8 (-23.8) | 16% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SDSU -12.4 (-19.6) | 137.2 (-23.2) | 14% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | SDSU 71 – 52 FRES |
| Feb 19, 2025 | SDSU 83 – 60 FRES |
| Dec 5, 2024 | SDSU 84 – 62 FRES |
| Jan 4, 2024 | SDSU 74 – 47 FRES |
| Feb 16, 2023 | SDSU 45 – 43 FRES |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 12-21 | 26-11 |
| Conference | 4-14 | 11-7 |
| Home | 7-9 | 14-1 |
| Away | 3-9 | 6-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 6-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.4 | 73.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 67.4 |
| Massey | -2.4 (#206) | 13.9 (#23) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.23 (#198) | 2.53 (#13) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.21 (#185) | 3.10 (#15) |
| RPI | 0.484 (#207) | 0.640 (#4) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FRES | SDSU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.3% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.0% | 32.3% |
| REB / G | 31.4 | 36.0 |
| OREB / G | 7.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.01 | 1.10 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.9% | 51.3% |
| TOV% | 19.5% | 16.7% |
| ORB% | 25.1% | 30.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.3% | 28.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 15.7% | 18.8% |
| DRB% | 70.2% | 72.6% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.3% | 23.5% |
Game Analysis
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