Betting Lines
| Spread | FOR -4.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 132.5 Over |
| Money | FOR -213 SBU +163 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | FOR win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | FOR +15 | 141 | Won |
| Massey | FOR -5.4 (+9.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 132.5 (+8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 87% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 88% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | FOR -5.8 (+9.2) | 137.6 (+3.4) | 74% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | FOR -4.9 (+10.1) | 134.9 (+6.1) | 70% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | FOR -5.5 (+9.5) | 136.3 (+4.7) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | FOR -5.7 (+9.3) | 135.9 (+5.1) | 74% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 7, 2026 | SBU 70 – 67 FOR |
| Jan 10, 2026 | FOR 81 – 77 SBU |
| Feb 1, 2025 | SBU 74 – 72 FOR |
| Jan 4, 2025 | SBU 86 – 66 FOR |
| Feb 15, 2024 | SBU 85 – 67 FOR |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 25-8 | 14-18 |
| Conference | 12-6 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-2 | 11-4 |
| Away | 6-5 | 2-11 |
| Neutral | 1-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.0 | 66.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 67.6 | 67.7 |
| Massey | 1.5 (#141) | -0.3 (#175) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.21 (#80) | -0.09 (#186) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 1.14 (#98) | -0.07 (#176) |
| RPI | 0.556 (#80) | 0.504 (#170) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | FOR | SBU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 42.8% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.3% |
| REB / G | 36.7 | 33.3 |
| OREB / G | 10.5 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 0.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 49.0% | 49.2% |
| TOV% | 18.8% | 19.0% |
| ORB% | 29.4% | 28.2% |
| FT Rate | 28.0% | 21.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.0% | 47.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.6% | 19.4% |
| DRB% | 74.9% | 71.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 28.3% |
Game Analysis
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