Betting Lines
| Spread | BU -2.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 135.5 Over |
| Money | HC +138 BU -138 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | HC win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | HC +2 | 140 | Won |
| Massey | BU -0.6 (+2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 134.7 (+5.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 48% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 54% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | BU -0.3 (+2.3) | 136.4 (+3.6) | 45% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | BU -2.5 (+4.5) | 133.8 (+6.2) | 34% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | BU -0.2 (+2.2) | 136.2 (+3.8) | 47% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | BU -0.4 (+2.4) | 136.8 (+3.2) | 48% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 26, 2026 | BU 78 – 63 HC |
| Feb 3, 2026 | BU 72 – 64 HC |
| Feb 8, 2025 | HC 72 – 52 BU |
| Jan 28, 2025 | BU 69 – 59 HC |
| Mar 2, 2024 | BU 94 – 84 HC |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-22 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 7-11 | 8-10 |
| Home | 6-9 | 9-4 |
| Away | 4-11 | 6-11 |
| Neutral | 0-2 | 0-2 |
| Last 5 | 2-3 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L4 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.2 | 66.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.1 | 67.7 |
| Massey | -10.1 (#334) | -5.9 (#276) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.84 (#330) | -1.12 (#279) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -2.13 (#329) | -1.53 (#284) |
| RPI | 0.423 (#316) | 0.449 (#277) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | HC | BU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.8% | 40.8% |
| 3PT% | 35.4% | 32.4% |
| REB / G | 31.5 | 35.2 |
| OREB / G | 7.4 | 10.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.7% | 47.2% |
| TOV% | 18.1% | 19.2% |
| ORB% | 21.3% | 29.9% |
| FT Rate | 16.7% | 22.4% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.9% | 18.7% |
| DRB% | 70.5% | 75.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.2% | 25.5% |
Game Analysis
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