Betting Lines
| Spread | SAM -1.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 136.5 Over |
| Money | SAM -125 UNCG +100 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | SAM win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | SAM +12 | 154 | Won |
| Massey | SAM -1.9 (+10.1) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 136.1 (+17.9) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | SAM -0.9 (+11.1) | 143.1 (+10.9) | 57% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | SAM -1.3 (+10.7) | 140.3 (+13.7) | 60% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | SAM -1.2 (+10.8) | 141.7 (+12.3) | 57% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | SAM -0.5 (+11.5) | 143.6 (+10.4) | 58% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 28, 2026 | SAM 87 – 78 UNCG |
| Jan 3, 2026 | UNCG 89 – 82 SAM |
| Mar 1, 2025 | UNCG 108 – 100 SAM |
| Jan 11, 2025 | SAM 76 – 69 UNCG |
| Feb 9, 2024 | SAM 78 – 69 UNCG |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-11 | 20-12 |
| Conference | 15-3 | 14-4 |
| Home | 13-3 | 11-3 |
| Away | 8-7 | 8-6 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 1-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.1 | 69.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 72.2 | 65.2 |
| Massey | 1.6 (#137) | 3.3 (#120) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.21 (#151) | 0.45 (#132) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.23 (#151) | 0.58 (#127) |
| RPI | 0.521 (#141) | 0.548 (#92) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | SAM | UNCG |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.9% | 43.3% |
| 3PT% | 34.7% | 34.2% |
| REB / G | 34.9 | 35.6 |
| OREB / G | 9.9 | 9.8 |
| AST / TO | 0.86 | 1.14 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.6% | 50.0% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 18.2% |
| ORB% | 29.7% | 28.6% |
| FT Rate | 30.5% | 23.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 47.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.8% | 20.0% |
| DRB% | 73.1% | 73.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.1% | 21.6% |
Game Analysis
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