Betting Lines
| Spread | UVA -16.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 127.5 Under |
| Money | LOU +1000 UVA -2500 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | LOU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UVA +3 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | UVA -18.0 (+15.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 127.5 (-8.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 1% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UVA -13.9 (+10.9) | 130.6 (-11.6) | 13% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UVA -13.7 (+10.7) | 129.4 (-10.4) | 14% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UVA -14.8 (+11.8) | 132.8 (-13.8) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UVA -13.0 (+10.0) | 131.9 (-12.9) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 14, 2026 | UVA 79 – 70 LOU |
| Jan 18, 2025 | LOU 81 – 67 UVA |
| Jan 4, 2025 | LOU 70 – 50 UVA |
| Jan 27, 2024 | UVA 69 – 52 LOU |
| Jan 4, 2024 | UVA 77 – 53 LOU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 4-28 | 25-8 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 15-5 |
| Home | 4-13 | 15-1 |
| Away | 0-11 | 6-5 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 4-2 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L5 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 63.9 | 67.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 75.8 | 60.5 |
| Massey | -8.4 (#313) | 13.2 (#21) |
| Bradley-Terry | -2.02 (#341) | 2.98 (#6) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.72 (#298) | 3.76 (#5) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#320) | 0.640 (#5) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | LOU | UVA |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 41.7% | 45.9% |
| 3PT% | 33.5% | 37.7% |
| REB / G | 32.2 | 32.1 |
| OREB / G | 9.2 | 8.1 |
| AST / TO | 0.60 | 1.79 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.9% | 53.0% |
| TOV% | 23.1% | 14.4% |
| ORB% | 27.7% | 25.8% |
| FT Rate | 24.2% | 26.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 54.5% | 48.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.6% | 20.2% |
| DRB% | 70.3% | 74.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 18.6% |
Game Analysis
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