Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 128.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -167 UK +130 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +3 | 139 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -3.9 (-6.9) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 126.6 (+12.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 69% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 71% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -4.2 (-7.2) | 130.2 (+8.8) | 69% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -2.6 (-5.6) | 129.3 (+9.7) | 52% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -4.1 (-7.1) | 131.6 (+7.4) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -4.7 (-7.7) | 131.0 (+8.0) | 70% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UK 92 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UK 95 – 90 MSST |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UK 91 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MSST |
| Jan 26, 2022 | UK 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 22-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 12-6 |
| Home | 12-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 4-6 | 6-4 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 65.7 | 74.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 61.0 | 67.8 |
| Massey | 10.4 (#44) | 10.2 (#48) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.86 (#45) | 1.72 (#51) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.29 (#46) | 2.16 (#50) |
| RPI | 0.568 (#61) | 0.569 (#60) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.2% | 45.6% |
| 3PT% | 28.5% | 36.6% |
| REB / G | 37.5 | 38.2 |
| OREB / G | 12.8 | 13.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.17 | 1.39 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 47.2% | 51.2% |
| TOV% | 19.0% | 16.9% |
| ORB% | 34.9% | 37.5% |
| FT Rate | 20.6% | 20.5% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.4% | 48.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 23.4% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 71.6% | 74.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 18.4% | 22.2% |
Game Analysis
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