Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -10.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 152.5 Over |
| Money | UK -650 MSST +470 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +24 | 160 | Won |
| Massey | UK -12.3 (+11.7) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 156.0 (+4.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 64% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -10.3 (+13.7) | 149.6 (+10.4) | 84% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -10.5 (+13.5) | 152.8 (+7.2) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -10.9 (+13.1) | 152.1 (+7.9) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -10.6 (+13.4) | 151.7 (+8.3) | 85% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 12, 2025 | UK 95 – 90 MSST |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UK 91 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MSST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | UK 71 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 26, 2022 | UK 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 22-14 | 13-19 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 5-13 |
| Home | 14-4 | 8-8 |
| Away | 4-6 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 4-4 | 1-5 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 5-0 |
| Streak | L1 | L6 |
| Avg Pts For | 80.5 | 77.6 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.3 | 81.8 |
| Massey | 16.5 (#28) | 7.6 (#83) |
| Bradley-Terry | 1.46 (#76) | 1.48 (#74) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.43 (#56) | 1.96 (#72) |
| RPI | 0.543 (#92) | 0.561 (#78) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.8% | 45.4% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 32.1% |
| REB / G | 39.4 | 41.4 |
| OREB / G | 11.8 | 12.6 |
| AST / TO | 1.66 | 1.12 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.6% | 51.8% |
| TOV% | 14.9% | 15.8% |
| ORB% | 33.7% | 32.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.9% | 23.0% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.9% | 47.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 14.7% |
| DRB% | 73.9% | 70.0% |
| Opp FT Rate | 24.2% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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