Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -6.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 156.5 Over |
| Money | UK -300 MSST +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +13 | 167 | Won |
| Massey | UK -6.5 (+6.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.4 (+8.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 71% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 63% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -5.7 (+7.3) | 152.2 (+14.8) | 73% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -5.5 (+7.5) | 156.2 (+10.8) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -6.1 (+6.9) | 158.4 (+8.6) | 75% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -5.7 (+7.3) | 154.7 (+12.3) | 76% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UK 92 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UK 95 – 90 MSST |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UK 91 – 89 MSST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | UK 71 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 26, 2022 | UK 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 23-10 | 21-14 |
| Conference | 13-5 | 8-10 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-4 |
| Away | 7-3 | 2-8 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 8-2 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 89.0 | 74.1 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 69.1 |
| Massey | 14.9 (#17) | 12.2 (#32) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.28 (#25) | 2.10 (#37) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.79 (#31) | 3.04 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.593 (#45) | 0.604 (#29) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.3% | 45.2% |
| 3PT% | 39.8% | 32.0% |
| REB / G | 39.2 | 38.8 |
| OREB / G | 10.2 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.88 | 1.13 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.0% | 51.7% |
| TOV% | 12.9% | 18.8% |
| ORB% | 28.2% | 33.8% |
| FT Rate | 22.2% | 27.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 48.1% | 45.0% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.6% | 19.1% |
| DRB% | 71.5% | 73.4% |
| Opp FT Rate | 21.7% | 23.3% |
Game Analysis
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