Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 161.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -215 UK +180 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +5 | 185 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -3.4 (-8.4) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 166.0 (+19.0) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 79% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 85% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -4.8 (-9.8) | 161.8 (+23.2) | 71% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -4.4 (-9.4) | 158.0 (+27.0) | 69% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -4.1 (-9.1) | 159.6 (+25.4) | 65% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -5.0 (-10.0) | 160.2 (+24.8) | 67% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UK 92 – 68 MSST |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UK 91 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MSST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | UK 71 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 26, 2022 | UK 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-13 | 24-12 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 10-8 |
| Home | 10-5 | 15-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-6 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 5-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.5 | 84.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 74.2 | 77.2 |
| Massey | 17.9 (#16) | 18.3 (#14) |
| Bradley-Terry | 3.97 (#6) | 3.33 (#17) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 5.03 (#7) | 4.08 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.631 (#23) | 0.644 (#14) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 47.6% | 48.1% |
| 3PT% | 34.2% | 35.7% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 40.9 |
| OREB / G | 13.3 | 11.5 |
| AST / TO | 1.80 | 1.94 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.4% | 55.6% |
| TOV% | 13.8% | 12.9% |
| ORB% | 35.9% | 30.9% |
| FT Rate | 21.5% | 25.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.2% | 47.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 15.2% |
| DRB% | 71.3% | 72.9% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.2% | 21.0% |
Game Analysis
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