Betting Lines
| Spread | MSST -4.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 155.5 Over |
| Money | MSST -200 UK +155 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MSST win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +2 | 180 | Lost |
| Massey | MSST -0.6 (-2.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 158.8 (+21.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 67% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MSST -3.3 (-5.3) | 154.6 (+25.4) | 64% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MSST -3.0 (-5.0) | 154.5 (+25.5) | 64% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MSST -2.9 (-4.9) | 155.7 (+24.3) | 60% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | MSST -3.0 (-5.0) | 155.0 (+25.0) | 61% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UK 92 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UK 95 – 90 MSST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MSST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | UK 71 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 26, 2022 | UK 82 – 74 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MSST | UK |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 21-14 | 23-10 |
| Conference | 8-10 | 13-5 |
| Home | 11-4 | 14-4 |
| Away | 2-8 | 7-3 |
| Neutral | 8-2 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 5-0 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 74.1 | 89.0 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 79.7 |
| Massey | 12.4 (#35) | 15.2 (#17) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.19 (#24) | 2.13 (#27) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.86 (#21) | 2.86 (#20) |
| RPI | 0.601 (#27) | 0.581 (#47) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MSST | UK |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.1% | 49.3% |
| 3PT% | 32.2% | 41.0% |
| REB / G | 39.3 | 37.9 |
| OREB / G | 12.6 | 10.1 |
| AST / TO | 1.14 | 1.70 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 51.4% | 56.8% |
| TOV% | 18.6% | 13.7% |
| ORB% | 35.5% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 25.6% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.4% | 48.7% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.3% | 16.6% |
| DRB% | 72.8% | 69.3% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.8% | 23.9% |
Game Analysis
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