Betting Lines
| Spread | UK -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.0 Over |
| Money | UK -475 MSST +360 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UK win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | UK +8 | 156 | Won |
| Massey | UK -12.3 (-4.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 146.4 (+9.6) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 84% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | UK -11.7 (-3.7) | 153.0 (+3.0) | 86% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | UK -10.0 (-2.0) | 146.1 (+9.9) | 83% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | UK -11.8 (-3.8) | 148.9 (+7.1) | 85% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | UK -11.6 (-3.6) | 153.0 (+3.0) | 86% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Jan 11, 2026 | UK 92 – 68 MSST |
| Jan 12, 2025 | UK 95 – 90 MSST |
| Feb 28, 2024 | UK 91 – 89 MSST |
| Jan 18, 2024 | UK 90 – 77 MSST |
| Feb 16, 2023 | UK 71 – 68 MSST |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 26-8 | 18-16 |
| Conference | 14-4 | 8-10 |
| Home | 18-0 | 14-3 |
| Away | 6-5 | 1-10 |
| Neutral | 2-3 | 3-3 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L2 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.4 | 70.5 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.6 | 66.2 |
| Massey | 19.3 (#6) | 10.3 (#46) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.65 (#27) | 1.58 (#65) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.55 (#19) | 1.85 (#67) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#33) | 0.570 (#68) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UK | MSST |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.8% | 48.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.5% | 32.8% |
| REB / G | 41.6 | 37.6 |
| OREB / G | 13.5 | 11.9 |
| AST / TO | 1.43 | 1.21 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 54.9% | 53.1% |
| TOV% | 16.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 39.6% | 36.7% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 26.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 45.9% | 50.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.4% | 19.6% |
| DRB% | 77.6% | 76.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 16.7% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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