Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -12.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Over |
| Money | GCU -700 RGV +600 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | RGV +1 | 153 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -13.2 (-14.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 150.6 (+2.4) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 88% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 92% ✗ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -13.2 (-14.2) | 145.4 (+7.6) | 87% ✗ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -10.3 (-11.3) | 146.3 (+6.7) | 86% ✗ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -10.4 (-11.4) | 146.5 (+6.5) | 84% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -10.8 (-11.8) | 145.6 (+7.4) | 85% ✗ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2024 | GCU 72 – 43 RGV |
| Nov 30, 2023 | GCU 79 – 69 RGV |
| Jan 7, 2022 | GCU 84 – 70 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 24-12 | 15-17 |
| Conference | 11-7 | 6-12 |
| Home | 14-4 | 11-6 |
| Away | 6-5 | 4-10 |
| Neutral | 5-3 | 1-1 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L1 | L2 |
| Avg Pts For | 72.2 | 75.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 69.1 | 81.2 |
| Massey | 3.7 (#115) | -5.9 (#277) |
| Bradley-Terry | 0.69 (#110) | -0.62 (#239) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 0.75 (#113) | -0.88 (#245) |
| RPI | 0.538 (#112) | 0.467 (#245) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 43.1% | 45.3% |
| 3PT% | 35.1% | 33.3% |
| REB / G | 36.2 | 35.7 |
| OREB / G | 11.0 | 10.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.80 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.4% | 51.0% |
| TOV% | 19.1% | 23.1% |
| ORB% | 32.4% | 28.8% |
| FT Rate | 26.5% | 33.7% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 47.1% | 51.9% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.7% | 17.4% |
| DRB% | 69.1% | 70.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 22.1% | 27.3% |
Game Analysis
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