Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -13.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | RGV +850 GCU -1200 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +10 | 148 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -14.2 (+4.2) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 152.7 (-4.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 2% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 0% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -13.4 (+3.4) | 147.8 (+0.2) | 13% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -12.1 (+2.1) | 145.7 (+2.3) | 17% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -12.6 (+2.6) | 148.8 (-0.8) | 15% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -13.6 (+3.6) | 150.1 (-2.1) | 12% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2024 | GCU 72 – 43 RGV |
| Feb 16, 2023 | RGV 77 – 76 GCU |
| Jan 7, 2022 | GCU 84 – 70 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 6-25 | 30-5 |
| Conference | 2-18 | 17-3 |
| Home | 5-9 | 16-0 |
| Away | 1-13 | 8-3 |
| Neutral | 0-3 | 5-2 |
| Last 5 | 0-5 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L14 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 68.2 | 77.8 |
| Avg Pts Against | 80.7 | 66.8 |
| Massey | -13.2 (#348) | 7.6 (#62) |
| Bradley-Terry | -3.45 (#349) | 1.99 (#50) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -5.48 (#352) | 3.08 (#42) |
| RPI | 0.418 (#285) | 0.606 (#53) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 37.4% | 47.2% |
| 3PT% | 18.1% | 32.2% |
| REB / G | 32.6 | 39.6 |
| OREB / G | 10.8 | 13.2 |
| AST / TO | 0.69 | 0.76 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 39.5% | 52.2% |
| TOV% | 18.9% | 17.8% |
| ORB% | 25.4% | 39.1% |
| FT Rate | 24.3% | 35.9% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 56.2% | 49.3% |
| Opp TOV% | 21.1% | 20.4% |
| DRB% | 63.0% | 73.7% |
| Opp FT Rate | 23.4% | 19.0% |
Game Analysis
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