Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -9.0 Away covered |
| O/U | 142.5 Over |
| Money | RGV +320 GCU -420 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | RGV win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +14 | 154 | Lost |
| Massey | GCU -5.0 (-9.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 142.5 (+11.5) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 12% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 14% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -7.7 (-6.3) | 140.2 (+13.8) | 22% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -6.4 (-7.6) | 141.1 (+12.9) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -5.9 (-8.1) | 142.7 (+11.3) | 26% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -5.7 (-8.3) | 141.5 (+12.5) | 28% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 1, 2024 | GCU 72 – 43 RGV |
| Nov 30, 2023 | GCU 79 – 69 RGV |
| Feb 16, 2023 | RGV 77 – 76 GCU |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | RGV | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 8-23 | 23-8 |
| Conference | 3-15 | 13-5 |
| Home | 4-9 | 15-2 |
| Away | 3-12 | 7-5 |
| Neutral | 1-2 | 2-1 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 70.8 | 70.4 |
| Avg Pts Against | 79.7 | 62.0 |
| Massey | -5.0 (#262) | 4.2 (#109) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.97 (#259) | 1.78 (#55) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.12 (#251) | 1.48 (#86) |
| RPI | 0.476 (#218) | 0.512 (#147) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | RGV | GCU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 44.4% | 42.5% |
| 3PT% | 33.3% | 34.8% |
| REB / G | 32.9 | 42.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.2 | 15.5 |
| AST / TO | 0.78 | 1.05 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 50.2% | 49.4% |
| TOV% | 20.3% | 18.5% |
| ORB% | 23.1% | 40.0% |
| FT Rate | 24.6% | 18.2% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.8% | 42.1% |
| Opp TOV% | 18.6% | 19.9% |
| DRB% | 65.9% | 72.5% |
| Opp FT Rate | 26.6% | 21.8% |
Game Analysis
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