Betting Lines
| Spread | GCU -23.5 Home covered |
| O/U | 151.5 Under |
| Money | GCU -8000 RGV +3300 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GCU win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GCU +29 | 115 | Won |
| Massey | GCU -22.7 (+6.3) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 154.3 (-39.3) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 99% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 100% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GCU -18.4 (+10.6) | 152.2 (-37.2) | 90% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GCU -17.8 (+11.2) | 150.9 (-35.9) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GCU -19.5 (+9.5) | 151.6 (-36.6) | 91% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GCU -21.4 (+7.6) | 152.5 (-37.5) | 91% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Nov 30, 2023 | GCU 79 – 69 RGV |
| Feb 16, 2023 | RGV 77 – 76 GCU |
| Jan 7, 2022 | GCU 84 – 70 RGV |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GCU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 30-5 | 6-25 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 2-18 |
| Home | 16-0 | 5-9 |
| Away | 8-3 | 1-13 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 0-3 |
| Last 5 | 3-2 | 0-5 |
| Streak | L1 | L14 |
| Avg Pts For | 77.8 | 68.2 |
| Avg Pts Against | 66.8 | 80.7 |
| Massey | 8.7 (#68) | -10.7 (#326) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.11 (#29) | -1.92 (#329) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 2.47 (#34) | -2.65 (#337) |
| RPI | 0.602 (#22) | 0.398 (#339) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GCU | RGV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 45.9% | 41.2% |
| 3PT% | 34.4% | 29.0% |
| REB / G | 38.4 | 33.2 |
| OREB / G | 11.9 | 9.6 |
| AST / TO | 0.90 | 0.82 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 52.0% | 45.4% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 19.5% |
| ORB% | 34.8% | 25.5% |
| FT Rate | 34.0% | 31.1% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 46.3% | 52.5% |
| Opp TOV% | 19.1% | 19.2% |
| DRB% | 71.4% | 66.1% |
| Opp FT Rate | 25.0% | 26.3% |
Game Analysis
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