Betting Lines
| Spread | CSUF -2.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 130.5 Over |
| Money | UCSD +130 CSUF -125 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | UCSD win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | CSUF +3 | 149 | Lost |
| Massey | CSUF -4.6 (+1.6) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 130.3 (+18.7) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 32% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 28% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | CSUF -5.1 (+2.1) | 132.4 (+16.6) | 26% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | CSUF -5.0 (+2.0) | 132.4 (+16.6) | 27% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | CSUF -4.6 (+1.6) | 131.3 (+17.7) | 30% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | CSUF -4.5 (+1.5) | 131.7 (+17.3) | 29% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 6, 2026 | CSUF 75 – 71 UCSD |
| Jan 9, 2026 | CSUF 88 – 71 UCSD |
| Mar 2, 2025 | UCSD 100 – 55 CSUF |
| Jan 5, 2025 | UCSD 90 – 51 CSUF |
| Feb 18, 2024 | UCSD 76 – 69 CSUF |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 10-20 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 5-13 | 12-6 |
| Home | 4-10 | 11-2 |
| Away | 6-9 | 7-8 |
| Neutral | 0-1 | 2-3 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 4-1 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 67.3 | 68.3 |
| Avg Pts Against | 73.5 | 66.3 |
| Massey | -6.4 (#282) | 1.8 (#135) |
| Bradley-Terry | -1.35 (#297) | 0.06 (#166) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -1.68 (#295) | 0.02 (#170) |
| RPI | 0.445 (#283) | 0.509 (#156) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | UCSD | CSUF |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 42.3% | 41.7% |
| 3PT% | 31.9% | 35.8% |
| REB / G | 32.7 | 33.0 |
| OREB / G | 8.4 | 9.0 |
| AST / TO | 0.91 | 0.78 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 48.4% | 48.5% |
| TOV% | 18.3% | 18.6% |
| ORB% | 23.9% | 26.2% |
| FT Rate | 18.1% | 26.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.6% | 47.8% |
| Opp TOV% | 17.3% | 20.9% |
| DRB% | 69.8% | 69.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.0% | 23.2% |
Game Analysis
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