Betting Lines
| Spread | MARQ -6.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 159.5 Under |
| Money | MARQ -300 XAV +225 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | MARQ win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | MARQ +1 | 137 | Won |
| Massey | MARQ -5.5 (-4.5) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 167.8 (-30.8) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 68% ✓ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 72% ✓ |
| Baseline Plus ML | MARQ -6.4 (-5.4) | 161.3 (-24.3) | 77% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | MARQ -5.8 (-4.8) | 155.7 (-18.7) | 76% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | MARQ -6.6 (-5.6) | 161.1 (-24.1) | 74% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | MARQ -6.2 (-5.2) | 161.6 (-24.6) | 80% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Mar 11, 2026 | XAV 89 – 87 MARQ |
| Feb 14, 2026 | XAV 96 – 88 MARQ |
| Jan 8, 2026 | MARQ 66 – 65 XAV |
| Mar 13, 2025 | MARQ 89 – 87 XAV |
| Jan 18, 2025 | XAV 59 – 57 MARQ |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 29-7 | 27-10 |
| Conference | 17-3 | 15-5 |
| Home | 16-1 | 15-2 |
| Away | 8-4 | 7-4 |
| Neutral | 5-2 | 5-4 |
| Last 5 | 4-1 | 3-2 |
| Streak | L1 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 79.3 | 80.9 |
| Avg Pts Against | 70.3 | 74.1 |
| Massey | 14.7 (#13) | 12.9 (#26) |
| Bradley-Terry | 2.52 (#14) | 2.43 (#16) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | 3.45 (#8) | 3.27 (#12) |
| RPI | 0.596 (#29) | 0.613 (#16) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | MARQ | XAV |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 49.9% | 50.0% |
| 3PT% | 35.7% | 40.1% |
| REB / G | 31.7 | 37.5 |
| OREB / G | 8.8 | 10.3 |
| AST / TO | 1.61 | 1.59 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 57.3% | 56.2% |
| TOV% | 15.7% | 17.6% |
| ORB% | 26.6% | 31.0% |
| FT Rate | 19.1% | 22.6% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 51.3% | 51.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 22.9% | 17.2% |
| DRB% | 68.1% | 74.2% |
| Opp FT Rate | 20.6% | 19.1% |
Game Analysis
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