Betting Lines
| Spread | GW -1.5 Away covered |
| O/U | 147.5 Under |
| Money | GW -111 GMU -111 |
Model Predictions
| Spread | Total | GW win | |
|---|---|---|---|
| Actual | GMU +13 | 119 | Lost |
| Massey | GW -0.0 (-13.0) | — | — |
| Massey Totals | — | 149.2 (-30.2) | — |
| Bradley-Terry | — | — | 54% ✗ |
| Weighted B-T | — | — | 50% ✗ |
| Baseline Plus ML | GMU -1.1 (-11.9) | 146.3 (-27.3) | 40% ✓ |
| Efficiency Plus ML ★ | GMU -1.8 (-11.2) | 143.2 (-24.2) | 39% ✓ |
| Baseline Tuned ML | GMU -0.2 (-12.8) | 147.5 (-28.5) | 50% ✓ |
| Baseline ML | GMU -0.7 (-12.3) | 148.9 (-29.9) | 40% ✓ |
Predictions use only rating snapshots dated before tip-off. Parenthesised values are the signed error vs. the actual result. Model performance →
Last 5 Meetings
| Feb 14, 2026 | GW 72 – 53 GMU |
| Jan 19, 2026 | GMU 69 – 64 GW |
| Mar 14, 2025 | GMU 80 – 65 GW |
| Feb 6, 2025 | GMU 53 – 50 GW |
| Jan 18, 2025 | GMU 80 – 77 GW |
Team Comparison
| Record & Ratings | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| Overall | 16-16 | 20-13 |
| Conference | 10-8 | 11-7 |
| Home | 11-6 | 14-2 |
| Away | 5-6 | 4-7 |
| Neutral | 0-4 | 2-4 |
| Last 5 | 1-4 | 2-3 |
| Streak | L2 | L1 |
| Avg Pts For | 76.0 | 68.7 |
| Avg Pts Against | 77.3 | 67.3 |
| Massey | -2.9 (#221) | 0.7 (#151) |
| Bradley-Terry | -0.35 (#209) | 0.12 (#158) |
| W. Bradley-Terry | -0.56 (#226) | 0.17 (#154) |
| RPI | 0.481 (#216) | 0.525 (#130) |
| Shooting & Four Factors | GW | GMU |
|---|---|---|
| FG% | 46.5% | 45.8% |
| 3PT% | 32.8% | 36.5% |
| REB / G | 34.0 | 36.2 |
| OREB / G | 8.7 | 9.3 |
| AST / TO | 0.98 | 1.01 |
| Four Factors — Offense | ||
| eFG% | 53.1% | 52.9% |
| TOV% | 18.2% | 20.9% |
| ORB% | 26.4% | 28.3% |
| FT Rate | 26.1% | 22.8% |
| Four Factors — Defense | ||
| Opp eFG% | 53.0% | 48.2% |
| Opp TOV% | 16.4% | 16.9% |
| DRB% | 71.1% | 74.8% |
| Opp FT Rate | 19.5% | 21.9% |
Game Analysis
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